Jeenbekov’s team didn’t analyze the situation and decided to conduct a dialogue with people using force.
The situation in Kyrgyzstan in October developed according to a scenario that hardly anyone could have predicted. According to the interviewee of CentralAsia.news, political expert Mederbek Korganbayev, it was the third revolution. Until now, the rapid change of power raises many questions, including the cause for popular discontent, the «accession» of Sadyr Japarov, and the resignation of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov. Expert Korganbaev answered some of them.
Political appetites
As we know, the protests in the country started immediately after the parliamentary elections. People said that some of the leading parties were openly buying votes. The interviewee agreed with that, drawing attention to political greed.
— This greed was demonstrated in the excessive use of administrative resources and massive vote-buying on the day of parliamentary elections. Jeenbekov’s team and the Matraimov clan failed to moderate their appetites and chose to take a significant part of the votes. As a result, the majority of deputy mandates went to the pro-government parties Birimdik and Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, — noted Korganbayev.
Within attempts of «taking more seats,» no one noticed that the interests of important parties were infringed in terms of real support of the electorate. The people did not start to tolerate «outright deception», and took to the streets.
President’s mistake
The expert pointed to the mistake of then Kyrgyz President Jeenbekov, who still had a chance to take control of the situation in early October. The interviewee believes that the fault of the authorities in the large-scale rallies and the revolution is undeniable.
— President Jeenbekov, instead of inviting the opposition to negotiations, simply ignored the demands of the protesters to revise the results of the parliamentary elections. The authorities started to send internal troops special forces and special equipment to the Ala-Too square (where the meeting was held) in order to disperse people, — reminded the expert.
Thus, the relevant regime demonstrated to the people that a peaceful dialogue would not work. The problem could be solved with the use of force.
Then another mistake followed. The secret service officers and all sorts of high-ranking advisors of the «top» level did not analyze the situation. There were no expert and analytical groups that could give adequate recommendations to the republican president. According to Korganbayev, during the elections, the situation got worse due to two factors: the coronavirus pandemic and the president’s low rating.
— Perhaps Jeenbekov trusted the officials, he worked with when he was the governor of the Osh region and whom he then brought to the president’s office. It is quite obvious that Jeenbekov did not receive specific analytical information, or this information simply did not reach the head of the republic, — underlined the expert.
Korganbayev believes that in October the authorities acted self-confidently. He reminded how cleverly they coped with the popular confrontation during the siege and detention of ex-leader of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev in 2019. It is possible that this year they decided that the force method would be successful.
It must be added that as a result of the protests, ex-leader Almazbek Atambayev was released from prison. He did not stay free for a long time — he was again detained. The expert considers it to be quite a logical step.
— Atambayev made a mistake — immediately after being released, he tried, together with Babanov and other politicians, to influence the ongoing political events. Undoubtedly, Atambaev was guided by personal grievances towards Jeenbekov. The attempt failed. The detention of Atambayev was an expected and logical step. Otherwise, I think so, there could have been clashes between the supporters of Sadyr Japarov and Almazbek Atambayev, — said the expert.
He stressed that the blunders of Jeenbekov and his team led to the revolution. The expert pointed out an interesting fact. The protesters demanded Jeenbekov’s resignation, he left, the country was headed by Sadyr Japarov.
The reason is that not only vote bribery but also the then leader himself was extremely dissatisfied with the citizens.
Time will tell
The current acting president now needs to solve an important task for the republic — to resume cooperation with strategic partners in order to receive financial assistance. The expert stated that Japarov is now speaking a lot about the fight against corruption, but so far it sounds like a populism.
Presidential elections in the republic are scheduled for January 10. The level of trust of people in the acting president remains high. According to the expert, if Japarov wins, then a fundamental reform can be implemented in the country. The interviewee admitted that Kyrgyzstan could become a presidential republic.
It is worth mentioning such specificity of the country as clans.
— Sadyr Japarov is a northern clan, his closest associate, the head of the special service Kamchybek Tashiyev is from the southern region. Probably, clans and business elites will come to an agreement with Sadyr Zhaparov, — said the expert.
The interviewee did not exclude that influential regional groups will offer the acting president support in the elections to maintain their status quo.
