CentralAsia.news provided political experts with an information platform to highlight their perspective on the situation.
Over the past three months, a number of elections have been held in the CIS states: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The situation that occurred in Kyrgyzstan was something that hardly anyone could have predicted. After the parliamentary election and mass rallies, the politician Sadyr Japarov, who was in prison, became acting president of the country. The intensity of the situation in Belarus also increases after the presidential election. But in Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon once again won the presidential election peacefully and without consequences. The experts commented on the specificity of the situation in Kyrgyzstan and compared it with Tajikistan and Belarus.
In Tajikistan everything is fine
So-called liberal media have repeatedly tried to stir things in Tajikistan up ahead of the presidential election. However, it was quite obvious that the incumbent leader of the republic would once again win the election. And that happened. However, there are no protests after the election. Independent expert Yevgeny Kudryats told CentralAsia.news that he had predicted Rahmon’s victory more than once. The interviewee noted that the current leader has no real alternative in the political arena.
— During his reign, he managed to «clean up» the political arena. There were no opponents as good as him. Therefore, there were no protests that happened in Kyrgyzstan. Considering transfer of power to his son, I think Rahmon decided to use the potential of the republic’s constitution, which allows him to remain the leader of the country for life, — commented Kudryats.
In his opinion, the «Azerbaijani option» can be implemented in Tajikistan, when the father-president created conditions for the handover of power to his son. It is quite logical that the absence of strong political personalities capable of «leading the people» is the main reason for the calm situation after the election in Tajikistan.
Split in Kyrgyzstan
October turned out to be «hot» in Kyrgyzstan: protests, the release of Almazbek Atambayev and Sadyr Japarov, resignation of the prime minister and president. Kudryats drew attention to the fact that the internal political situation in the republic differs significantly from the situation in Tajikistan. Mass violations at the parliamentary elections became an «explosive» factor.
— In Kyrgyzstan, unlike in Tajikistan, the situation is completely different, but it is associated with the massive falsifications that occurred during the recent election. They caused massive unrest, which led to the cancellation of the voting results, — said the expert.
As for Japarov, it won’t be right to say that he became a real leader. He does not have the support of the main part of society, said the source. In his opinion, there is a clan struggle in the republic.
— In fact, in Kyrgyzstan, there is a split in society associated with the struggle of clans, therefore, along with Atambayev’s supporters, there are also his opponents. Apparently, the struggle of clans in Kyrgyzstan will only get more intensive in the near future. It means that if a representative of one clan comes to power, members of other clans will go into opposition and will in every possible way interfere with his work, — marked the expert.
Kudryats stated that the situation in the republic gets worse due to the fact that there will be no parliamentary election before the new year. In this regard, Kyrgyzstan will be under «suspended conditions».
It must be added that the ongoing unrest in Belarus cannot be compared with the internal political situation in Kyrgyzstan. Expert Mederbek Korganbaev believes that the European states are behind the Belarusian events, and the United States try to execute a coup d’etat with the help of them.
The interviewee noted that something similar happened in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan in the mid-2000s. Then the West organized «color revolutions».
The opinions of two experts allow us to conclude that the roots of the current political situation in Kyrgyzstan are inside of the republic.
